Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

677
FXUS61 KCLE 021320
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
920 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley today will move to the Mid-
Atlantic on Tuesday while continuing to influence the region. A
warm front will lift north across the area on Tuesday. A slow
moving cold front will progress eastward Wednesday night through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9:20 AM Update...
Not much to change with the near term forecast as high pressure
will bring mostly clear skies with filtered sunshine due to
smoke aloft.

Previous discussion...
Forecast remains on track for today. We are seeing some smoke
showing up on the satellite(GOES Channel 1) streaming south out
of Canada in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Aside from the
smoke, still expecting mostly clear skies.

Previous discussion...
Dry weather with warming temperatures can be expected through
the near term. Upper level ridging extends north into Ontario
and will expand east across the Great Lakes today. The
northwesterly flow aloft has been directing smoke from several
fires ongoing in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba southeast
into northern Plains and Midwest. The smoke has been primarily
in the upper levels of the atmosphere and will increase again
this afternoon, partially obscuring what would otherwise be
clear skies. The smoke is expected to be thick enough that it
could suppress temperatures by a degree or two into the 70s in
Ohio and upper 60s in NW Pennsylvania.

Surface high pressure over the area today will build to the Mid-
Atlantic coast on Tuesday with southerly flow and warm advection
developing. Temperatures at 850mb reach 15-18C on Tuesday and highs
are forecast to climb another 7-10 degrees. The vertically
integrated smoke parameter off the HRRR indicates the smoke will be
most dense Monday night into Tuesday morning. In addition, a couple
parameters are also indicating the smoke may start to descend to
lower levels of the atmosphere on Tuesday. Still not expecting
reduced surface visibilities but given the potential for the thicker
layer and continued whitish tint to the atmosphere have added a
mention of haze to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is expected Tuesday night as a ridge at the surface and
aloft exits slowly E`ward and is accompanied by stabilizing
subsidence. Continued low-level warm/moist air advection from the
Gulf and southern Gulf Stream, along the western flank of the
surface ridge, will contribute to a milder and somewhat muggy night.
Lows should reach the upper 50`s to mid 60`s in NW PA and the 60`s
to lower 70`s in northern OH. Any lingering Canadian wildfire smoke
in our region should exit generally to the north and northeast by
daybreak Wednesday courtesy of S`erly to SW`erly winds at/near the
surface and SW`erly flow farther aloft.

On Wednesday through Thursday night, SW`erly to WSW`erly flow aloft
and embedded shortwave disturbances should affect our region as the
aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft continues to exit
E`ward and a trough axis aloft approaches from the northern Rockies
and north-central United States. At the surface, the trough
overspreads our region from the west and a slow-moving cold front
should begin to drift SE`ward across essentially the western-third
of our CWA Thursday afternoon through Thursday night as multiple
lows, attendant to the aforementioned shortwave troughs, move
NE`ward along the front. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Wednesday, but especially during Wednesday night through
Thursday night as weak to moderate instability, including elevated
CAPE, is released by the following: a low-level return flow of
warm/moist air from the Gulf and southern Gulf Stream undergoing
isentropic ascent aloft, convergence/moist ascent along surface
trough axes and associated with the cyclonic circulations of the
frontal surface lows that will accompany the shortwave troughs,
convergence/moist ascent along the surface portion and upper-reaches
of the cold front. The low-level return flow of warm/moist air from
the Gulf and southern Gulf Stream will be associated with unusually-
high PWAT`s, which will contribute to showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing periods of torrential rainfall. Flash flooding
may become a concern as SW`erly to WSW`erly mean mid-level flow of
about 20 to 40 knots should exhibit a large component parallel to
the cold front and support the development of training, yet
progressive showers/storms. WPC has already highlighted NW OH in a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday through Wednesday
night, while our entire CWA is in a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall Thursday through Thursday night. Moderate deep-layer bulk
shear may contribute to strong to severe thunderstorm concerns
during the afternoon through roughly early evening hours of
Wednesday and Thursday, especially if moderate destabilization of
the warm/moist sector boundary layer via daytime heating occurs.

Greater sunshine and daytime heating on Wednesday are expected to
contribute to late afternoon highs reaching the 80`s to 90F in our
CWA. Increasing cloud cover will contribute to balmy overnight lows
in the 60`s to lower 70`s around daybreak Thursday. Abundant cloud
cover and greater coverage of showers/storms are expected to
contribute to the following: late afternoon highs reaching the 70`s
to lower 80`s on Thursday; overnight lows reaching mainly the upper
50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW`erly to W`erly flow aloft on Friday through Friday night should
veer to NW`erly on Saturday as the aforementioned primary trough
axis moves from the Upper Midwest toward New England between
daybreak Friday and sunset Saturday evening. At the surface, the
aforementioned cold front should continue to drift SE`ward across
our region and exit the rest of our CWA by daybreak Saturday as
additional surface lows move NE`ward along the front. These lows
will be tied to shortwave troughs embedded in flow aloft. On
Saturday, a surface ridge should build slowly from the western Great
Lakes and vicinity. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected because the same lifting mechanisms mentioned in the short-
term discussion are expected to release at least weak CAPE,
including elevated CAPE. PWAT`s will remain unusually-high in the
warm/moist sector and should contribute to additional periods of
torrential rainfall. Training showers and thunderstorms, and at
least localized flash flooding should remain a concern due to
essentially the same reasons mentioned in the short-term discussion.
Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur on Friday, amidst moderate
deep-layer bulk shear, but the occurrence of stronger storms will be
highly contingent on the magnitude of diurnal destabilization of the
boundary layer. Showers/storms should finally exit generally to the
east Saturday morning through early afternoon as the upper-reaches
of the cold front exit generally to the southeast. Fair weather is
then forecast the rest of Saturday as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies the aforementioned surface ridge.

The aforementioned cold front is expected to be weak and its passage
should result in a minor air mass change, especially with respect to
surface air temperatures. Daytime highs are expected to reach the
70`s on Friday and Saturday, respectively. Overnight lows are
expected to reach the upper 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak
Saturday. Fair weather is expected Saturday night through Sunday as
the aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the
western Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. This expectation is based on
good agreement between the 00Z/Mon runs of the ECMWF/GEM/GFS models
and the fact that the often more-reliable ECMWF model and GEM have
been depicting this forecast solution for about 24-hours now. N`erly
to E`erly surface winds are expected to maintain a somewhat cooler
and drier air mass across our region. Overnight lows should reach
the 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak Sunday and be followed by
late afternoon highs in the 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF cycle with high
pressure overhead today. We do expect to have some smoke in the
upper levels of the atmosphere from Canadian wildfires, which
should thicken more by tonight. Surface visibilities are not
expected to be impacted.

Light southwesterly winds will become a little more westerly
this afternoon with lake breezes expected at CLE(18Z) and
ERI(16Z). Winds will back to southwesterly again tonight at 7
knots or less.

Outlook...There is a low chance that smoke will reach the lower
levels of the atmosphere on Tuesday resulting in some haze and
visibilities of 5-6 miles. Periodic showers and thunderstorms
with non-VFR are expected Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves are expected to remain 3 feet or less on Lake Erie through
this Friday. A ridge will continue to impact Lake Erie, but also
exit very slowly E`ward through Tuesday night as the parent high
pressure center moves from the WV area to Atlantic waters east of
the Delmarva Peninsula by daybreak Wednesday. Primarily S`erly to
SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected through daybreak
Wednesday. On Wednesday through Friday, a trough is expected to
overspread Lake Erie generally from the west. A slow-moving cold
front associated with this trough should begin to drift SE`ward
across Lake Erie Thursday afternoon and become located near the
lakeshore from NE OH to western NY by sunset Friday evening. In
general, SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots should veer to NW`erly
with the passage of the cold front. However, wind direction is
expected to be erratic at times as multiple lows move NE`ward along
the cold front on Thursday through Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10/13
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Jaszka